CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-11T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-11T00:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46775/-1
CME Note: Bright loop CME and shock first seen to the Northeast by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-06-11T00:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME is a long duration C6.7 class flare from Active Region 14465 (N09E39) seen peaking at 2026-06-11T00:02Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with a wide region of dimming, field line opening and an EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. | Arrival note: Arrival signature characterized by a sharp jump in B_total from ~5 nT to ~8 nT accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed form ~550 km/s to ~630 km/s as well as an increase in temperature from ~135k K to ~364k K and an increase in density from ~5 p/cc to ~14 p/cc. Starting around 2026-06-13T13:44Z, the magnetic field components become more stable with time until about 20:00Z, potentially indicating the presence of one or more passing flux ropes. This event is most likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-06-11T00:36Z. Two other CMEs, CME: 2026-06-09T16:36Z and CME: 2026-06-09T21:36Z, were also anticipated to provide very weak glancing blows within this timeframe, but have more likely missed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T09:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T00:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 11/0513 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 763 
Longitude (deg): S38
Latitude (deg): N11
Half-angular width (deg): 49

Notes:

Lead Time: 36.85 hour(s)
Difference: 9.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2026-06-11T21:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy